Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Application of some principles of Quantum Theory to Project Management. Could it be real, or just a common pop-science claim, not based on facts?

If we aim for effectiveness, we must acknowledge the observer effect and also consider that there can be multiple incompatible solutions to any problem.



Key question here: Can the principles of quantum mechanics, such as superposition, be extended to the macroscopic realm of human relationships?

This could be a truly fascinating question, situated at the intersection of physics and psychology. The short answer is: not literally, but its analogical extension is surprisingly rich and deserves to be taken seriously.

Understanding the unpredictable.

Where the analogy works well:

Quantum superposition describes a system that exists in multiple possible states simultaneously until an observation "collapses" it into a single one. Human relationships, such as those necessary in project management, have a similar structure. Before a difficult conversation, a relationship genuinely exists in multiple possible states: it could grow closer, drift apart, become conflictive, or transform. The act of having the conversation (the "observation") collapses those possibilities into a specific reality. This isn't just a metaphor; the indeterminacy is real, even if its mechanism is social rather than quantum.

Entanglement is another interesting concept. Two people in a deep relationship develop correlated emotional and behavioral states, not through a mystical connection, but through a shared history, mirrored habits, and mutual learning. Change one, and you will have truly changed the other, even at a distance.

Where the analogy falls short:

Quantum effects operate at scales where thermal noise doesn't eliminate them, so they disappear at macroscopic scales. Human relationships are thermodynamically hot systems. Decoherence would destroy any literal quantum effects almost instantaneously. Therefore, when it is claimed that relationships are literally governed by quantum mechanics (a surprisingly common claim in popular science), a physical error is being made.

There is also a more subtle problem: quantum indeterminacy is fundamental; it is not merely ignorance, it is the actual state of reality. Human relational uncertainty is primarily cognitive: we don't know what will happen because information is hidden, not because the future is not yet fully formed.

Perhaps the real insight isn't that quantum mechanics applies to relationships, but that quantum mechanics can reveal something broader: that observation is participatory, that systems can be genuinely indeterminate, and that the act of measuring changes what's measured. These ideas, when developed on their own terms in social and psychological contexts, are powerful. 

So the most defensible position is probably this: quantum mechanics does not govern human relationships, but it serves as a conceptual advance that allows us to loosen the grip of classical determinism, and that relaxation has genuinely useful echoes in how we understand complex, observer-dependent, and indeterminate human systems.

Furthermore:

The principle of complementarity states that quantum objects, such as photons or electrons, possess mutually exclusive properties (wave and particle) that cannot be observed simultaneously. Measuring one obscures the other. Both descriptions are necessary, yet incompatible.

Applied to relationships, this principle suggests something genuinely profound: that people, and the connections between them, can contain incompatible truths that are both real and necessary.

Some dimensions where this manifests:

Intimacy vs. Autonomy. The more a relationship is measured or defined by closeness and merging, the more each person's individuality is suppressed. But if one takes a step back to preserve independence, intimacy fades. Both cannot be maximized simultaneously; however, a healthy relationship needs both. Applying this concept to project control could be fascinating and very revealing.

Knowledge vs. Unknown. The more you try to "know" someone or something, to categorize them, predict them, explain them, the more you flatten the living mystery of who or what they are. Yet, without some understanding, there is no real connection. The act of observing changes what you see.

In short, the act of observing changes what is observed, and this is profoundly true in relationships. When you analyze a person or something too closely, you transform them. When you demand that they be completely consistent or completely knowable, you impose a kind of violence. Relationships, like quantum systems, can be richer than any description can capture.

Suggestion-Warning:

Quantum mechanics, as a literal physical theory, does not govern human behavior. The danger lies in the fact that seeking analogy becomes a way to avoid clarity rather than accept complexity. But we shouldn't dismiss the fact that it offers a beautiful perspective: it suggests that, in relationships, contradiction is not a failure. Two opposing truths about a situation can both be real, even necessary.

Finally, if we move from the essentially theoretical to the potentially practical, the truly useful perspective of everything described above would be:

Observing changes the system.

In quantum mechanics, measurement is not passive; it affects the state of what is being measured. In project management, this is profoundly true and often underestimated.

When you monitor and manage the progress of a work group on a given project, you are not simply collecting data. You are:

  • Changing their priorities.
  • Affecting their stress and motivation levels.
  • Highlighting what you consider important.
  • Potentially disrupting flow states.

This suggests that you should be strategic about what you observe and how often. Excessive monitoring creates its own problems, not because work groups resent it, but because the observations actually disrupt the work. Recommendation: A light touch on stable tasks and more attentive observation on high-risk or poorly defined ones.

The Superposition and Collapse of Commitment:

This is where the analogy becomes practical: before committing to a delivery date with a client, the project exists in multiple possible states: different scopes, different timelines, different risk profiles. The act of committing narrows those possibilities down to a specific reality.

This means strategically delaying collapse: keeping options open longer when uncertainty is high. It means not making commitments before gathering enough information to progress toward a positive rather than a negative state.

It's key to recognize that vague, sometimes forced, commitments don't help. A vague "we'll aim to resolve this soon" isn't superposition; it's simply poor communication. The parallel with quantum mechanics would be: be precise when making measurements (commitments), but choose carefully when to measure.

Entanglement and Teamwork:

Working groups aren't independent entities; they are entangled. When one person falls behind, it affects everyone else, not only through dependencies but also through morale, workload redistribution, and cultural momentum.

Practical implications:

Don't treat problems in isolation: when one person struggles, review the entire system.

Create positive entanglement: pair programming, code reviews, and shared ownership create beneficial correlations.

Beware of negative entanglement: one demoralized person can change the mood of the entire workgroup.

The biggest pitfall to avoid:

The quantum analogy can lead you to believe that systems are more mysterious or uncontrollable than they actually are. Unlike quantum particles, workgroups can communicate what's happening. They have intentions, make plans, and can adjust course. Indeterminacy in a project stems primarily from incomplete information and the complexity of coordination, not from fundamental unpredictability.

So the practical conclusions could be:

• Observation is intervention.

• Commitments stifle possibilities.

• Team members are interconnected systems.

• “We must act accordingly.”

Project management isn't quantum physics, but the analogies described above remind us that observation is intervention, that commitments define realities, and that teams are interconnected systems. Wisdom lies in knowing when to look, when to decide, and how to maintain system cohesion.


Spanish version available at:

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Lesson Learned and Cognitive Biases



The lessons learned activity is of utmost importance for any organization and its projects, as it is the natural feedback of an organization and gives the basis of its know-how. However, this activity, like all activities involving executing staff, is exposed to the egos and fears of its participants, regardless of their role in the organization, which could lead to biased approaches that undermine the success of the lessons learned performance that must be objective being assertive.

It is a fact that the precepts and judgments about past events are modeled by our egos, beliefs, prejudices, expectations, interests, desires and fears. This is known as cognitive bias. So it is very important to be aware of it since the lessons learned activity by definition is the review of past events and detection in them of the causes of failures and successes.

How to avoid wrong identification of success/failure causes.

Firstly, it is positive to recognize our natural exposure to cognitive biases in order to implement preventive actions.

Listed below are some of the biases that are likely to be present during the identification and weighting of success or failure causes:


Bandwagon effect: The tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. The probability of one person adopting a belief increases based on the number of people who hold that belief. Related to groupthink.
Blind spot bias: The tendency to not recognize our own biases.
Choice-supportive bias: The tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were. Confirmation bias: The tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.
Focusing effect:  Prediction bias occurring when people place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome.
Outcome bias: The tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.
Attentional bias: Neglect of relevant data when making judgments of a correlation or association. 

When we assign much or little importance to the information we have, biases affect the quality of our decision or selection. As a result, tactics that allow us to minimize or avoid biases would be very useful.

Tactics to minimize the biases during lessons learned exercise:


TACTIC
BiasEs to be avoided
Identify at least three motivating elements for each cause of success or failure.
Confirmation bias.
Choice-supportive bias.
Monitoring the selected causes of success or failure.
Bandwagon effect.
Attentional bias.
Promote the questioning of the success and failure causes.
Bandwagon effect.
Take an outside view and/or advice.
Blind spot bias.
Look for other options to the selected causes (what else could have happened?)
Choice-supportive bias.
Confirmation bias.
Once the causes were identified, identify possible biases in their selection.
All
Training employees to detect situations in which biases are likely to occur.
All
Implement a checklist to rule out biases.
All



It is advisable that the project management be aware of the Bias Risk in the implementation of the lessons learned sessions and therefore, some preventive actions could be taken using the project management tools, in addition to request the expert advice and apply common sense.



Spanish version available at:
https://ingconcurrente.blogspot.com/2017/07/la-actividad-de-lecciones-aprendidas-de.html