Lesson Learned and Cognitive Biases

The lessons learned activity is of utmost importance for any organization and its projects, as it is the natural feedback of an organization and gives the basis of its know-how. However, this activity, like all activities involving executing staff, is exposed to the egos and fears of its participants, regardless of their role in the organization, which could lead to biased approaches that undermine the success of the lessons learned performance that must be objective being assertive.

It is a fact that the precepts and judgments about past events are modeled by our egos, beliefs, prejudices, expectations, interests, desires and fears. This is known as cognitive bias. So it is very important to be aware of it since the lessons learned activity by definition is the review of past events and detection in them of the causes of failures and successes.

How to avoid wrong identification of success/failure causes.

Firstly, it is positive to recognize our natural exposure to cognitive biases in order to implement preventive actions.

Listed below are some of the biases that are likely to be present during the identification and weighting of success or failure causes:

Bandwagon effect: The tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. The probability of one person adopting a belief increases based on the number of people who hold that belief. Related to groupthink.

Blind spot bias: The tendency to not recognize our own biases.

Choice-supportive bias: The tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were. Confirmation bias: The tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.

Focusing effect:  Prediction bias occurring when people place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome.

Outcome bias: The tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.

Attentional bias: Neglect of relevant data when making judgments of a correlation or association. 

When we assign much or little importance to the information we have, biases affect the quality of our decision or selection. As a result, tactics that allow us to minimize or avoid biases would be very useful.

Tactics to minimize the biases during lessons learned exercise:

TACTIC	BiasEs to be avoided
Identify at least three motivating elements for each cause of success or failure.	Confirmation bias. Choice-supportive bias. Outcome bias.
Monitoring the selected causes of success or failure.	Bandwagon effect. Attentional bias. Outcome bias.
Promote the questioning of the success and failure causes.	Bandwagon effect.
Take an outside view and/or advice.	Blind spot bias.
Look for other options to the selected causes (what else could have happened?)	Choice-supportive bias. Confirmation bias.
Once the causes were identified, identify possible biases in their selection.	All
Training employees to detect situations in which biases are likely to occur.	All
Implement a checklist to rule out biases.	All

It is advisable that the project management be aware of the Bias Risk in the implementation of the lessons learned sessions and therefore, some preventive actions could be taken using the project management tools, in addition to request the expert advice and apply common sense.



Spanish version available at:
https://ingconcurrente.blogspot.com/2017/07/la-actividad-de-lecciones-aprendidas-de.html

Hybrid Methodologies for Project Execution. How appropriate could they be?

Current evidences show that the application of a unique methodology for project execution can succeed in a project and fail in another. Consequently, it is important to stay aware of this to identify and implement the execution methodology more favorable to the specific situation, which is part of what has been defined as Situational Awareness.

That is why is crucial to know the most common basic execution methodologies (Sequential, Concurrent, Lean and Agile with its various forms: Scrum, XP, others) and even more the hybrid methodologies, which take advantages of each basic model and reduce its deficiencies.

So that, the current trend in project execution gives relevance to the hybrid methodologies, maximizing the benefits of each basic methodology and minimizing or eliminating their shortages.

The most common hybrid methodologies are shown below:

1. SEQUENTIAL + CONCURRENT EXECUTION = ENHANCED OVERLAPPING EXECUTION.

Enhanced Overlapping Execution is an intermediate scheme between Sequential Execution and Concurrent Execution based on the overlapping of dependent activities instead of following traditional sequential processes. Here, the overlapping considers relationship between dependent activities, their Evolution and Sensitivity characteristics, in order to implement appropriate strategies to reduce rework risk.

• Evolution: Rate at which information is generated when no time constraints or pressures are applied.
• Sensitivity: Refers to the amount of rework that a downstream activity will have to go through if information on the upstream activity changes

Examples of appropriate strategies for Enhanced Overlapping Execution:

With Enhanced Overlapping Execution, the following shortcomings of Sequential Execution are reduced or eliminated:

• Overall execution time too long, usually makes it difficult to meet the deadline.
• Downstream issues not considered early enough.
• Activities execution waits in queue
• Little communication among groups involved.

And it is maximized the following advantages of Concurrent Execution:

• Reduction in overall execution time.
• Downstream problems are addressed in early stages.
• Concurrent team aligned.

Thus with Enhanced Overlapping Execution the following benefits are obtained:

• Reducing Project delivery times (implementation and monitoring of assumptions may be necessary).
• Overlapping is applied systematically to reduce inherent costs and risks (risks detected should be monitored).
• Team can learn insights from later cycles to aid earlier ones.
• Downstream issues resolved early.
• Reduces overhead fixed cost.

2. LEAN + AGILE EXECUTION:

With Lean-Agile Execution, the following shortcomings of Agile Execution are reduced or eliminated:

• Doubts about planning (target delivery).
• Project does not have an upfront plan and budget.

And it is maximized the following advantages of Lean Execution:

• Aims to eliminate most if not all forms of waste (products, space, others).
• Focused on reducing costs

Thus with Lean + Agile Execution the following benefits are obtained:

• Implementing Minimum Viable Delivery.
• Focused on reducing costs and waste.
• Flexibility.
• Rapid development and deployment.
• Continuous feedback and flexibility to changes

3. SEQUENTIAL + AGILE EXECUTION

With Sequential-Agile Execution, the following shortcomings of Agile Execution are reduced or eliminated:

• Planning (target delivery) can be sometimes dubious. It is reactive methodology.
• As the initial project doesn’t have a definitive plan, the final product can be grossly different than what was initially intended.
• Proper client feedback is crucial.

And it is maximized the following advantages of Sequential Execution:

• Formality.
• It is predictive methodology.
• Client usually requires upfront information on budget and schedule (deadline)
• Expect predictability

Thus with Sequential-Agile Execution the following benefits are obtained:

• Formality
• Easy and frequent feedback
• Focused on requirements
• Early mitigation of risk
• Upfront planning
• Early visible progress
• Expect predictability
• Managed complexity

Finally, no hybrid methodology is better than another for any project, the choice will depend on the characteristics and requirements of the project. The best option will be as a result of the combined evaluation of the following attributes:

• Budget.
• Scope.
• Contract Type.
• Type of customer and its degree of participation and feedback.
• Quality / cost control
• Delivery time and Goals.
• Predictability
• Procedures and Regulations.
• Risk and uncertainty
• Resources.
• Team Size and Distribution.
• Team Availability.