Adequate project assumptions management is a key issue for
the successful implementation of the Concurrent Engineering. Some useful
methods for managing assumptions are listed below:
Assumption-Based Planning:
Assumption-Based
Planning (ABP) is a tool designed for improving the robustness and adaptability
of plan for reducing the number of avoidable surprises in any plan or planning.
It is primarily a post planning tool that concentrates on the assumptions in an
already-developed plan that are most important to plan´s success and that are most
uncertain. ABP decrease the risk that assumptions represent.
Critical Assumption Planning:
Major
uncertainties in the business proposition are isolated as critical planning
assumptions. Critical assumptions in the plan are then tested. The test
sequence is determined by the potential reduction of uncertainty per dollar of
test cost. Assessment of the assumption test results marks a milestone. At each
milestone the business plan is revised to reflect what has been learned, and
the venture is redirected or terminated. This process avoids the wasted effort
and expense of pursuing the original plan until commercial failure becomes
obvious.
Keys for Planning:
Differentiation
between primary and derivative assumptions with focus on extracting and
understanding the primary assumptions.
Early
construction of a model of the business plan that allows calculation of the
impact of primary assumptions such as price or sales productivity factors on
derivative assumptions such as revenues and income.
Assignment
of uncertainty ranges to the primary assumption values, not just the most
likely values.
Identification
of the critical planning assumptions by determining the impact of their
uncertainty ranges on venture net present value.
Selection
of the next venture milestone based on the test program that results in maximum
reduction of uncertainty at least cost in least time for the most critical
assumption(s).
Platform-based planning:
Future
results can be extrapolated from a well-understood and predictable platform of
past experience. Predictions could be accurate because they are based on solid
knowledge rather than on assumptions
Discovery-Driven Planning:
Discovery-driven
planning offers a systematic way to uncover the dangerous implicit assumptions
that would otherwise slip unnoticed and thus unchallenged into the plan
It is based on the implementation
of:
Reverse
income statement:
Modeling the basic
economics of the business
Pro forma
operations specs:
Laying out the operations needed to
run the business.
Key
assumptions checklist:
Ensuring that assumptions are checked
Milestone
planning chart:
Specifying the assumptions to be tested at each
project milestone.
References:
Towards a
Proposed Process to Manage Assumptions during the In-Service Phase of the
Product Lifecycle, John
Iley and Cees Bil, Transdisciplinary
Lifecycle Analysis of Systems R. Curran et al. (Eds.), 2015 The authors and IOS
Press.
Critical
assumption planning: a practical tool for managing
business development risk, Hollister B.
Sykes & David Dunham,
Journal of Business Venturing Vol 10.
Assumption-Based
Planning: A tool for Reducing Avidalbe Surprises, James A. Dewar, Cambridge
University Press, RAND 2002.
Discovery
Driven Planning, Rita
Mc Grath & Ian MacMillan, Harvard Business Review July-August 1995 Issue
Discovery
Driven Growth: A Breakthrough Process to Reduce Risk and Seize Opportunity, Rita Mc Grath & Ian MacMillan, Harvard Business
Publishing.
Practical
Project Risk Management: The ATOM Methodology, David Hillson
& Peter Simon,
Management Concepts Inc., Aug 1, 2012